Stephen Brocks, co-founder of MORE Agency and a licensed Oklahoma REALTOR® since 2017, thinks the next couple of weeks could be one of the smartest times this year to buy a home in Tulsa. Realtor.com's annual research points to the week of September 27 through October 3 as the best week of the year to buy. With mortgage rates back above 7%, plenty of buyers are stepping back. Stephen says that's exactly why the ones who stay in could have the upper hand.
Why is late September the best time to buy a home?
"Buyers behave the same way every year. You can see it every year since 2018. The market ramps up through spring, runs hot through summer, sometimes jumps a little after Labor Day, and then slowly tapers off toward the end of the year.
Right now there's still inventory. There are still options out there. But buyers are starting to back off. School's back in, the days are getting shorter, and it's harder to get out and look at homes. At the same time, sellers are more motivated. They're thinking, 'The holidays are coming. If we're going to be in the new house, I've got to sell this one. I don't want to take care of it vacant through the winter.' All of that works in the buyer's favor."
How much could buyers save by buying in the fall?
Realtor.com estimates buyers could save roughly $14,000 that week compared to the summer peak, based on a national median-priced home of about $416,000. That's a national figure, not a Tulsa forecast, and every home and price range is different. But the pattern behind it, fewer buyers and more motivated sellers, is one Stephen sees locally every fall.
Should you wait for mortgage rates to drop?
"Rates have gone up recently. The 10-year Treasury is over 5%, and mortgage rates move with it, so they're above 7% now. Back in March, when rates dipped below 6%, people jumped on it. We had huge months here at the brokerage from April through June.
But just because the rate is over 7% doesn't mean you shouldn't buy. You don't buy a home on interest rate. You buy it on monthly payment. Focus on writing an offer that gets you to a payment that works. And when other buyers step out of the pool, the ones who stay have leverage. If it doesn't work for the seller, that's okay. You move on to the next one."
Every buyer's situation is different, so talk with a trusted lender about your own numbers before you shop.
What are the "four Americas" in today's housing market?
Ryan Serhant recently described four very different groups in real estate: cash buyers, financed buyers, owners locked into low rates, and builders. Stephen breaks down what each one means for Tulsa:
Cash buyers are still common at the high end and low end of the market, but in the middle price range, where most Americans shop, only about one in five purchases are cash.
Financed buyers should stop waiting on a rate drop and negotiate concessions instead. "If the payment works today, that's your signal."
Rate-locked owners hold about 66% of U.S. mortgages under 5%, but Stephen is seeing more people get comfortable above that because they're focused on payment.
Builders are negotiating. "One local builder has been offering 4.9% on a conventional loan, though specials like that can end quickly."
What does this mean if you're selling this fall?
"Sellers, expect to negotiate. You either list exactly where you want to sell and hope it pays off, which is a gamble, or you build in a strategy that lets you adjust. For some listings I'm planning right now, if they haven't sold by the end of November, we'll withdraw, let the family enjoy the holidays at home, and relaunch in February when buyers come out of hibernation."
The takeaway
The best week of the year to buy starts September 27. If you've been waiting on rates, look at the payment instead. The buyers who stay in while others step back are often the ones who get the best deal.
Thinking about buying or selling in Tulsa this fall? Reach out to MORE Agency, (918) 884-7718, or [email protected], or watch the full video.
Mortgage rates and savings figures are illustrative and based on national research, not a guarantee or a Tulsa-specific forecast. Stephen Brocks is a licensed REALTOR®, not a lender; consult a mortgage professional about your situation. Equal Housing Opportunity.
